A new approach to measuring riskiness in the equity market: Implications for the risk premium

We introduce a new approach to measuring riskiness in the equity market. We propose option implied and physical measures of riskiness and investigate their performance in predicting future market returns. The predictive regressions indicate a positive and significant relation between time-varying riskiness and expected market returns. The significantly positive link between aggregate riskiness and market risk premium remains intact after controlling for the S&P 500 index option implied volatility (VIX), aggregate idiosyncratic volatility, and a large set of macroeconomic variables. We also provide alternative explanations for the positive relation by showing that aggregate riskiness is higher during economic downturns characterized by high aggregate risk aversion and high expected returns.     

税收优惠影响企业创新产出的多元机制研究——来自中国软件与集成电路产业的证据

创新政策一直是激励企业创新的重要手段，其中税收优惠政策是一种具有市场导向性的激励政策，对企业创新具有良好的促进作用，但是政策对企业产生激励作用的原因尚不清晰。选取对我国技术突破有重要作用的软件与集成电路企业，采用2006-2018年中国A股上市公司数据，聚焦2011年国家对软件与集成电路行业的两个税收优惠政策，运用双重差分法对企业创新产出影响进行实证研究。结果发现：税收优惠政策对发明专利申请有显著促进作用，而对非发明专利申请无显著影响。融资约束、企业避税行为等是税收激励政策发挥作用的主要渠道。另外，税收优惠政策对不同规模、产权和区域企业有不同影响，税收优惠政策对大型企业、国有企业以及中西部地区企业创新产出促进作用更大。从税收优惠政策长期影响看，该政策对专利申请的影响存在时滞性，而发明专利申请在政策发生当年就显著增加。研究结论可为明晰税收优惠政策、融资约束与企业创新产出间关系提供有益启示。     

Resource-envy-free and efficient allocations: A new solution for production economies with dedicated factors

I consider the problem of determining an equitable and efficient allocation of resources in production economies with factors which must be dedicated to production and cannot be consumed directly. First, I show that in such economies envy-free and efficient allocations exist under standard assumptions. However, I argue this notion of fairness is unsuitable for the present context. I then introduce a new notion of fairness, which I call resource-envy-freeness. First, I associate with each consumption bundle its resource footprint consisting of the vector of factors used to produce it. I then show that preferences over consumption bundles can be extended to preferences over factor bundles. An allocation is resource-envy-free if no agent prefers another agent’s resource footprint to its own. The analysis of resource-envy-free allocations in production is exactly analogous to the analysis of envy-free allocations in exchange. I establish that resource-envy-free and efficient allocations exist under standard assumptions, and I demonstrate that such allocations are intuitively appealing.     

The long-run reversal in the long run: Insights from two centuries of international equity returns

We perform the most comprehensive test of long-term reversal in national equity indices ever done. Having examined data from 71 countries for the years 1830 through 2019, we demonstrate a strong reversal pattern: the past long-term return negatively predicts future performance. The phenomenon is not subsumed by other established cross-sectional return patterns, including the value effect. The long-term reversal is robust to many considerations but highly unstable through time. Finally, our findings support the overreaction explanation of this anomaly.     

Institutional quality and corporate financing decisions around the world

We investigate the influence of the recent comprehensive institutional quality dimensions of Karolyi (2015), such as market capacity, operational efficiency, foreign accessibility, corporate transparency, legal protection, and political stability, on financing decisions of firms across 56 countries between 2000 and 2015. We find that stronger institutional quality or lower fundamental risks in a country ease firms' access to long-term debt, and equity financing. We attribute our results to institutional environments influencing financing decisions by shaping the severity of market frictions, such as agency conflicts and information asymmetry, and transaction costs. As a result, we conclude that any improvement in a country's institutional environment will boost firms' access to long-term financing, and thus longer-term investments that promote countries' economic growth will be more feasible. Our findings are robust to potential endogeneity issues.     

Growth uncertainty,generalized disappointment aversion and production-based asset pricing

We study a production economy with regime switching in the conditional mean and volatility of productivity growth. The representative agent has generalized disappointment aversion (GDA) preferences. We show that volatility risk in productivity growth carries a positive and sizable risk premium in levered equity. Our model can endogenously generate long-run risks in the volatility of consumption growth observed in the data. We show that introducing leverage with a procyclical dividend process consistent with the data is critical for the GDA preferences to have a large impact on equity returns.     

Financing investment in East Asia: Regional or global savings?

This paper investigates the extent to which domestic investment in East Asian countries is financed by domestic, (East Asian) regional and global savings in order to infer the relative importance of regional vs. global capital markets in East Asia. Panel regression results show that regional saving in East Asia plays a much more important role than global saving in financing investment in the region. The results suggest that global capital flows, despite its huge volume in East Asia, does not contribute to proper investment financing. The results also show that Japanese saving has significant effects on regional investment but Chinese saving does not.     

Speculative bubbles in emerging stock markets and macroeconomic factors: A new empirical evidence for Asia and Latin America

The purpose of this study is firstly to test for the existence of periodically collapsing stock price bubbles in Asian and Latin American emerging stock markets for the period 1990–2009. We use the new non-cointegration test developed by Taylor and Peel (1998) with the Residuals-Augmented Least Squares (RALS) method of Im (1996) and Im and Schmidt (2008) for monthly data of price indexes and dividends. The results show that the hypothesis of formation of bubbles cannot be rejected for all of the studied emerging stock markets. This evidence implies that the co-integration relation between the prices and the dividends is not always supported, indicating that the stock prices do not reflect their fundamental values in the emerging stock markets. We then link speculative bubbles with macroeconomic and financial factors, which is an interesting contribution of this study. The degree of equity market openness is found to be the key factor, positively related to the formation of speculative bubbles in these markets.     

Are we all on the same boat? The challenge of adaptation facing Portuguese coastal communities: Risk perception,trust-building and genuine participation

The Portuguese coast is experiencing severe erosion and loss of beachfront, processes which are expected to become worse with climate change impacts. These additional alterations are beginning to show at a time when financing for conventional coastal protection is no longer guaranteed at scales of investment which are likely to be required if future coastlines are to be maintained. This paper looks at how residents and key stakeholders of three coastal communities in Portugal perceive such possible changes, how far they judge and trust current coastal management, and how they perceive their current participation and foresee future forms of involvement on adaptive coastal change. The evidence from these surveys and interviews suggests that there is a strong commitment in each location to maintaining current levels of coastal protection, and to preserving the integrity of local societies and economies, even though there is also recognition that adaptation in some form will eventually be required. However, our research reveals that there is not yet sufficient trust between coastal stakeholders, especially towards public institutions and policies, for any degree of progressive coastal adaptation to take place. Building trust in creative learning processes of progressive adaptation could lead to improved science and participation along with a meaningful dialogue over cooperative coastal planning and financing. The research undertaken for this paper lays the groundwork for such a process of trust-building to begin.     

Theoretical foundations of equity based foreign market entry decisions: A review of the literature and recommendations for future research

This paper reviews the theoretical foundations of the equity based foreign market entry (FME) decisions literature. We analyse 1055 academic FME papers published over four decades (1970–2013). We identify and analyse the theories that informed and guided FME research over time. Our review indicates that scholars have recently started to challenge some of the core assumptions of established theories, draw on and integrate insights from multiple theoretical perspectives which, in turn, generated a multiplicity of approaches for studying FME decisions and their performance outcomes. The paper discusses the explanatory power of the different theories, assesses the relevance of the different theoretical perspectives to our understanding of current FME phenomena and recommends directions for further research.